Anderlecht have been given a realistic chance of progressing in the Europa League according to the latest projections. Opta's 10,000 simulations show the Brussels club reaching the top 24 and the knockout stage in 61 percent of cases.
The forecast is based on an expected points tally of 10.10, which would land them in 23rd place in the league phase. That is just enough to qualify. The contrast with city rivals Union Saint-Gilloise is stark. They are projected to finish in the top 24 in 93 percent of simulations, with an expected 14.49 points and a sixth-place finish. Union are even tipped to win the entire tournament in 8.58 percent of the runs.
European opener
The numbers arrive as Anderlecht prepare for their first group match against Olympique Lyon this Wednesday at the Lotto Park. Coach Brian Riemer's side go into that encounter with mixed domestic form. Anderlecht currently sit seventh in the Jupiler Pro League with ten points from six games. Their last result was a 0-1 win at KV Mechelen, thanks to a goal from Tawfik Bentayeb. The full standings are available online.
That victory was part of a recent run of three wins, one draw and one defeat in their last five league matches. The defeat was a painful 3-0 loss to leaders Union Saint-Gilloise, who are assigned a far more prominent role in the Europa League projections. The coming weeks offer Anderlecht a chance to shift focus to Europe, ahead of the home game against Zulte Waregem. The fixtures page shows the complete schedule.
Domestic context
The six-point gap to leaders Union in the league shows the challenge this season. Opta's projections suggest Anderlecht's European adventure will be a tight survival battle, while Union can aim for the latter stages. The simulations give Union a 16.66 percent chance of reaching the final. For Anderlecht, that figure is just 0.58 percent.
The first European test against Lyon is therefore key to outperform the predicted trajectory. Riemer's squad must cope without the injured Lucas Hey for now, limiting options. Fans can follow the current squad lineup online. Anderlecht begin their European campaign on Wednesday at 18:45, immediately followed by Union's match against Viktoria Plzen on Thursday.
